Archive for August, 2010

America’s 10 Most STRESSFUL Cities: Anything to Do with Housing???

Sunday, August 29th, 2010

Every now and then these little ditties pop up at my Yahoo! Homepage and I just can’t help to look at them. Being a proud Austinite and all, I regularly like to see how my city stacks up against our country’s best and brightest. Austin isn’t on there for being stressful at all, but a lot of the cities listed have some strong correlations to certain dead spots within the housing market.

These city ranking might not be the most solid science but Forbes usually does a very good job with them and at the very least, they are pretty darn interesting. Take this example: the 10 most STRESSFUL cities in America. Ranked by job security, commute difficulty, taxes, affordability and a slew of other stats in order to place America’s most stressful cities. I wonder if it’s any coincidence that these cities tend to be the very same struggling desperately in the housing market? Oh well, you should just check it out…

1.   Las Vegas, Nevada

2.   Los Angeles, California

3.   Houston, Texas

4.   Tampa, Florida

5.   Riverside, California

6.   Miami, Florida

7.   Dallas, Texas

8.   New York, New York

9.   Chicago, Illinois

10. Detroit, Michigan

Of the top six on this list, Houston, Texas is the only city that doesn’t really lie within a bubble state. So if you’re living in Florida, Nevada, or California and wondering why your house won’t sell, maybe it’s because it’s too stressful—so make it easy on the buyer. To check the picture by picture study yourself, go here.

An UPSIDE to the Housing Market

Friday, August 27th, 2010

LOOK AT THESE HEADLINES:

housing crash news from patrick.net
Pierce the Housing Bubble! (nytimes.com)
House Prices May Drop Another 25% (theatlantic.com)
Another Record Low for Housing (economix.blogs.nytimes.com)
Burning Down the House; New House Sales Consensus 330K, Actual 276K, Record Low (Mish)
Rosenberg Explains Why Not One New House Priced Over $750,000 Sold In July (zerohedge.com)
Housing market continues to decline (csmonitor.com)
Lack of Jobs, Foreclosures May Keep U.S. Housing Depressed (bloomberg.com)
New Foreclosure Numbers Reverse MBA Survey’s “Bright Spots” (cnbc.com)
Experts Say Housing No Longer Builds Wealth (irvinehousingblog.com)
An unsupportable American dream (nationalpost.com)
The Housing Bubble: The Economists Should Have Known (newgeography.com)
After Housing Bubble, the Dark Side of Houseowner Dreams (time.com)
Treasury Admits Program for Struggling Houseowners Just a Ploy to Enrich Big Banks (alternet.org)
The Fed’s Monetary Insanity (atimes.com)

Great Firewall of China Blocks Posting To Patrick.net (patrick.net)
Commercial Property Owners Choose to Default (online.wsj.com)

I thought I would try and give the “glass half full” side to all of this gloom and doom journalism, and try and illustrate some positive reasons to delve into the housing market this fall.

The first and most obvious reason just so happens to be that mortgage rates are at record lows. You can find sub-5% Fixed Rate Mortgages with almost any broker. That means that your rate of insurance will never change over the life of your loan—and 4.75% is a great rate! More later…

Despite the Odds, Buyers Are Out There

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

Yesterday’s blog was a bit of a tirade, I know, but I was just trying to illustrate a point to you. The majority of the time houses aren’t selling because they’re priced too high. We’ll leave it at that.

Since many of my close friends—all in the Generation Y demographic—are at that age when they’re starting to get descent jobs and making moderate incomes, getting married and wanting to start families, they are instinctively turning towards houses. Despite the financial merits of avoiding a mortgage right now, you cannot rent forever, and, let’s face it: it is kind of like throwing money down the drain. So they are looking to buy houses both as an investment and as something permanent in their life.

But when it comes down to it, they’re ready to take their time in doing so, they are picky, AND they’re well aware of the market. Plus, they may not make that much money yet, so they’re looking and waiting to find the perfect house. In my experience, it has always been a smaller house in a quaint neighborhood that seems more enticing than some McHome in a cookie cutter neighborhood. These people have style and patience and aren’t willing to just jump into the market headfirst like so many investors were before the crash.

It would be interesting to find out what kind of houses are being sold for sale by owner. I would think it would be much of the property that got snatched up in the bubble buy countless buyers and now that values are dropping, they’re trying to sell it off. Gen Y is not interested in that sort of residence. They want something real—almost novelty. They want the smaller, concise houses that they grew up in, not the ones they moved to with their parents in high school.

So be smart seller, and cater to you buyer, whoever they may be.

What’s Been Going On Lately and How Do I Sell My Home After I Find Out??

Wednesday, August 25th, 2010

[Here’s my typical rant about the real estate market that preludes many of my blog posts:] So what’s been going on lately? Well, plenty of talk about the double dips (in fact, we covered some of that while ago…). There’s been plenty of talk about regional bubbles and busts, and countless data showing signs of a weakening market. But that’s all just talk. Let’s get down to brass tacks here.

Do you remember a little thing where the government would actually give you money if you bought a house? It was that thing that ended back in April—er, no—you couldn’t submit applications after April and deals were still going through for most of the summer? Do you remember that? It was a little thing called a Homebuyer Tax Credit and it was offered to New Homeowners and Move-up, Move-down, and anyone in between that were trying to purchase a house in the spring. Once that bad boy expired (sometime in July?), the phrase “double-dip” was getting thrown around like a hot potato.

The stimulus definitely worked.

Bastioned by monetary incentives, people went out there and bought houses despite a generally unattractive buying atmosphere. It almost worked too well, because after the stimulus expired people stopped buying houses at the same rate. Sure it may have bolstered confidence in the market for a brief period, but it was ultimately a short-term fix. The real road out of recovery is a much longer, rockier one with a gradual, yet steady, incline.

[Here’s my schpiel about what to do now:] So now what do you do? How are you supposed to sell a house now that government isn’t gently pushing people out into the market to shop? It’s simple: DROP YOUR ASKING PRICE!

We’ve been over one of the main and most important rules for selling a home FSBO probably a thousand times. (I could recite this thing in my sleep.) You have to price accordingly and accurately. An overpriced home isn’t going to sell and despite what your home was worth before the crash, it is a different price now.

It’s a bit harsh, I know, but desperate time call for what: Lower Prices.

I’ve run across another article online detailing how to appropriately price now that homes are no longer selling at their Spring rate. Home Selling is like baseball: good fundamentals are the key, and you can never rehearse or practice them too much. So read up avid seller and price appropriately!

Another Case for Renting

Monday, August 23rd, 2010

What’s the alternative to buying a house in this market economy? When property values are dropping and mortgage rates fail to change? When people simply don’t want to get bogged down into another mortgage payment? Renting.

Yes, my friends, renting. And although it may be a bit contrary to the “American Dream” of owning a house and grilling in the backyard, it has its upsides. Take this Chicago couple who relocated from their Michigan house to rent an apartment over Lake Michigan in the Chicago. They have found that the reduced stress on property maintenance and other expenses greatly outweighs the notion of owning your own home—for now at least. Read the short article here.

While renting does alleviate you from the extraneous responsibilities of home ownership, it also has its down sides. For instance, rent payments are simply going to a landlord, while a mortgage has the weight of equity and return. Some folks look at it like you’re just throwing money in the trash, others see it as biding your time for a recovered market.

So if you can handle it like the Cleavers then more power to your, but renting is not the be-all end-all answer from our struggling housing market—just an alternative.

A Closer Look at the Austin Metro Area

Monday, August 16th, 2010

It’s incredibly interesting the things that you hear and read throughout the day—the hordes of information coming in through every receptor. It can even seem a bit overwhelming at times. You become so inundated with mortgage stats, shadow inventory, and all of that financing jargon that these stats just turn into meaningless numbers inside of your head. Well, in an effort to give the housing market a little breathing room to recover (a watched pot never boils) I thought we could take a moment and check out regional information concerning housing over the past—say…few years.

Since I am a born and bred Texas and proud to reveal that I am in fact from the Austin metro area, I thought I would see what I can learn about housing in this little part of the country that I call home. The website I found that plays host to all of these stats is a Texas A&M run hub called the Real Estate Center. Since it’s an academic-run site, I figure there’s really no question as to whether their number are valid or not. I trust them.

First thing I noticed when glancing through the run down was that home sales from the ‘90s are considerably lower than home sales from the ‘00s—the real peak being in the boom years of 2005 to 2008. While the average number of homes sold in a given month was around 500 in 1990, in the first half of 2010, the average sits somewhere close to 2000. Along with number of units sold, I also noticed that the average prices they were sold for was considerably higher: from around $80,000 to $250,000 per unit! In addition to those startling stats, listings in general have doubled. This means a number of things have happened over the last twenty years in real estate and it can all be summed up thusly: more people have listed, purchased, and sold homes for more money in the last two decades.

This information doesn’t contain some secret source of real estate wisdom encrypted in it’s endless flurry of numbers and stats—it’s just an easy way to understand a little bit more about your area. Plus, it’s also a pretty good indication of long term play in the housing market.

So use it as you will…

How Low Can You Go

Thursday, August 12th, 2010

Concerning yesterday’s abrupt and minimal posting, I was just trying to make a point. It seems like I have been talking a lot lately about the state of the housing market and how conditions do not look good. Despite low mortgage rates, buyers are still frozen in limbo by unemployment and other financial factors that just make buying a house right now not-such-a-good fiscal decision. SO, yesterday I was sort of at a loss. I didn’t want to continue on with my tirade about the collapsing housing market, yet I still wanted to illustrate to you the importance and magnitude of this current time in real estate. It really is a strange time to be a real estate blogger because so much is happening. There are folks out there working day and night planning legislation and looking at formulas to bring this real estate economy back from the brink of destruction. I just read an article today about a mortgage firm outright asking its employees, “How low must mortgage rates get before people start buying houses again?” Apparently, the 4.49% it’s at no isn’t cutting it, and that’s a record low. The general consensus was that 3% was an appropriate number to bring buyers back to the market. Those capable are doing anything in their power to save this industry and it’s crazy to think about how much is really going on out there, and how much is tied back to the housing industry. We’re battling unemployment—something the Obama administration has been struggling to alleviate. We’re up against credit crises and income inequality, rising costs of education, no jobs available for those who do have an education, over crowding in cities, factories shutting down in areas that solely depend on them to support its residents, and so much more fallout from this “Great Recession” that I find it astounding anyone is able to purchase a house at all. But they are still out there.

Yes, people are still buying houses, investing in real estate both residential and commercial, and not going completely under. If you want to look at the glass half full, ¾ of mortgages are not underwater, and mortgage rates are incredibly low. Officials and experts are trying to make it a viable financial option for people to go back into the market and purchase homes, so it must not be all bad. We have to trust them, otherwise it’s anarchy. What has changed? The reason behind buying a home has made a dramatic shift in ideal. Before, during the boom, you could buy a house just for the hell of it. It was only going to make you money. But now, people really have to take a great amount of consideration before they opt into a mortgage. The incentives are there. A 4.49% 30-year FRM is unheard of. But perhaps the timing isn’t so good. Perhaps there is financial instability a foot. Real estate isn’t just a willy-nilly barrel shoot anymore. There’s no tossing around toxic assets or subprime mortgages anymore—we know what happens. This time that we’re in right now, is just America starting to take real estate seriously. After all, it does constitute 10% of our nation’s economy.

Real Estate Economics

Wednesday, August 11th, 2010

The American Real Estate Industry Makes up 10% of the U.S. Economy.

A Paranoid Post: The Systematic Elimination of the American Middle Class

Monday, August 9th, 2010

In light of recent financial stresses, many Americans are feeling the pinch in the middle class. It seems that as unemployment continues on it’s dirge, and housing prices rise, it’s getting that much harder for Americans who aren’t exponentially wealthy to continue on in the dreamy, middle-class, suburban splendor that they did no more than ten or twenty years ago.

Positioned here, I have a rather paranoid article that outlines 22 bullet points of why the middle class is being fundamentally extinguished. Now, as to the legitimacy of these stats, I cannot attest. However, they do paint a rather disparate picture of much of our nation’s wealth being festooned inside of a very small and wealthy minority. There’s no question that people are having trouble paying their mortgage and that it is getting increasingly hard to find jobs—that much is true.

In another article, the Bush administrations infamous tax cuts to the wealthiest in order to produce jobs in the private sector seem to also be contributing to the current separation between the middle class and the very, very wealthy.

This sentiment comes directly from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner: “[T]he policies put in place by the previous administration, prior to this great recession, have left us with a terrible legacy of challenges, and America is a less equal country today than it was ten years ago, in part because of the tax cuts for the top 2 percent put in place in 2001 and 2003.”

There is even legislation in process to rectify this income inequality and let those tax cuts expire.

[Geithner continued] “The most affluent 400 earners in 2007 — who earned an average of more than $340 million dollars each that year — paid only 17 percent of their income in tax, a lower rate than many middle class families,” he said. “The legacy of the crisis is millions of unemployed Americans, idled factories, a national debt swollen by eight years of deficit spending and growing income inequality.”

As you can see, the Treasury is well aware of this growing problem that is keeping many hard-working Americans from being able to afford their mortgage payments.

A Disturbing Look a MLS Fraud

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010

So I came across a startling article on the often informative and fun Patrick.net forums. It details a case where a seller listed their home on an MLS with some very appealing photos. However, one potential buyer came to find out that these photos were taken when the house was in very, very good condition and the current structure didn’t necessarily live up to expectations.

The moral of the story is that you can’t really make a decision based on good MLS photos. For all you know they could be fake or doctored. So always, always check out a house—but you know that. And sellers, don’t think that you’re getting away with something by posting falsifying photos. It’s not going to work because any smart buyer knows better. Anyways, have a look at what these folks tried to get away with. Link to Forum.